Super Bowl 46 Analysis
Posted By Admin on February 15, 2012
This became a really interesting game in the final two minutes.
First off, as I wrote for Slate and Deadspin, the big thing from a strategy perspective was the final go-ahead touchdown of the game. Belichick may have made the gutsiest call in Super Bowl history by apparently instructing his defense to allow the score with a minute to play. Had the Giants run out the clock in favor of a chip shot field goal, it would have extinguished any chance the Patriots had. Instead, they had a minute and one timeout to respond. It wasn't clear if Bradshaw was tippy-toeing trying to go down at the one, or if he was just burning a couple extra seconds prior to scoring like video-gamers are know to do. Either way, he should have taken a knee.
Beyond that, Eli Manning was a defensible choice as MVP, with 0.70 WPA and 12.3 EPA. But I thought the real difference in the game was the battle in the trenches. The NYG defensive front won the battle, handing the NE offensive line -0.24 WPA and -0.4 EPA. They had only 2 sacks, but more importantly they put Tom Brady on the ground 7 times. They added four tackles for losses and held the NE running game to a lower than typical success rate.
The big stars on the NYG defense were Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. Tuck had 0.24 +WPA, 4.7 +EPA, and a Success Count (SC) of 4. Pierre-Paul notched 0.20 +WPA, 5.1 +EPA and a 6 success plays. Blackburn made the one interception of the game, but it was so deep it didn't move the needle very much. He made a bigger impact with his tackles, earning a 1.14 Tackle Factor for the game.
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