Tebow
Posted By Admin on November 28, 2011
Is Tebow the reason the Broncos are winning? Every third news item or blog post I come across seems to be pulling its collective hair out, pondering the Broncos' 5-1 run. He's a winner! No, he's no good! He can't throw! But he runs! He doesn't turn the ball over! He doesn't take sacks! He puts his team in a hole! He's clutch! On one hand this, on the other hand that. If only their were a single number, tuned precisely to tell us how much a player contributes to his team's fortunes…That would settle the question.
Fortunately, that's what Win Probability Added (WPA) does. As a starter in 2011, Tebow has a -0.18 WPA. Suppose the football gods gave us a test with the question, On net, has Tebow helped or hurt the Broncos' chances of winning since he became the starter? Show your work. I'd write down: Hurt. -0.18 WPA. And I'd be marked correct.
We could end the discussion right there if we wanted, but that's no fun.
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